Forecast Changes for Nor’Easter November 2012

I shifted the snow line down and amounts are much less as well. Winds are somewhat the same but dropped that as well. With the High Pressure to the north and the system moving up the coast the push against eachother will still create some high gusts near the coast especially.

4″ locally would probably be the highest total we see probably in places like Danbury, Redding, and somewhere in Litchfield County.

Lets say the atmosphere squeezes 1″ of liquid and drops that as all snow. ratios would be near 6:1 since surface temps will be in the mid 30s. So that would mean 6 inches of snow but factor in melting 4 inch would be the best. Also note… It will start falling in the afternoon, not night. And also note, there might be some mixing involved in the areas of pink and white here. So thats why I’m saying 4″ would be most.

The Storm will be weaker and take a more Eastward track which means Less precip, Less winds, Less Interior impacts. But it does mean colder temps and more snow.  The EURO and GFS actually stall the system a bit well SouthEast of Long Island before pushing it OTS. The NAM takes it around Boston into Maine. All models agree that the storm will not be stronger than a 988mb low. NAM is the strongest with a 988. Its an amazing change just 36rs out but thats what happens when there’s no timed phase with the Northern Jet. The system is moving faster and arriving basically 6 hrs sooner.

 This is the sounding for NYC. It starts as snow, then mixing gets involved then to rain. This is for 7-10pm time frame. Red line is temp, Blue line is dew point. Whenever they meet it means moisture/clouds. Its snowing all the way down to 4000 feet then temps warm slightly to above freezing but the warming layer is not enough to melt all the snowflakes and the temp drops back down below freezing as you go down. So this would be a Wet Snow/Sleet/Rain mix. This is from the latest GFS.

NYC Sounding

Should be interesting to see what happens..  Current Surface

Surface 11-6-12

This Morning Temps at 6am. Coldest morning of the season. Lows are 15-20 degrees below normal!

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