El Nino Hurricane Seasons
By Ralph Fato on May 14, 2012, 8:03pm
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Since there's talk about the long range GFS showing a tropical system, I figured I'd throw this up.
Using the years we went from a La Nina winter/spring or a slightly neutral winter/spring to an El Nino summer, I put together those years and the amount of tropical storms we had in the Atlantic.
Data is from 1950.
Data does not include depressions that never developed.
13 years we transitioned into El Nino summer. 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009.
• 3 of those years did not have a major hurricane. (68’,72’,86’)
• 9 of those years had only 4 or more hurricanes form.
• Only 1 of those 13 years had more than 10 tropical storms form. (2002)
• The average amount of tropical storms that formed per year is 7.85.
• 4.14 of those became hurricanes per year and on average 1.43 became major per year.
Landfalls within those years(4th Source)
Florida – 7 times
Louisiana – 6 times
Massachusetts – 1 time (Carrie, 1972)
Mississippi – 2 times
North Carolina – 2 times
New York -2 times (Agnes 1972, Bella 1976)
Texas – 5 times
Sources:
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season
• http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
• http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
• http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/all-storms?StormName=ALL&State=ALL&Year=1951,1957,1963,1965,1968,1972,1976,1982,1986,1997,2002,2006,2009&Category=ALL&Month=ALL&hurdatNumber=&searchInSearchParam=¤tSearchText=
Background is 2004 Satellite with Ivan bottom right and Frances over Florida.
As you can see , not very active during El Nino summers but we never should use just one indicator. There are always other players involved.
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