Connecticut's Severe Weather Season
By Stephen Barabas on May 15, 2012, 11:39am
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As we begin our approach into the summer time months, the threat for severe weather in a climatological sense will be increasing. Skywarn training sessions are in full swing, and severe weather awareness and preparedness plans are posted.
But, with a season that has so far been something of a mystery, will Connecticut continue to see unusual weather through this summer? Quite possibly.
The jet stream has generally been positioned to our north, and if this remains as such, then many of the necessary dynamics won't be in the region to produce the kind of severe weather we've been seeing over the last several years; i.e tornadoes. But with that being said, it doesn't mean that we won't see severe weather. Smaller features can also provide the necessary dynamics, though rather difficult to come together as needed. I worked on a project with has been built upon the hypothesis that terrain influences our severe weather, sometimes in a significantly positive way. We can't rule out storms which fire during the day with solar heating which as a result are producing large hail. We can't rule out the chances for microbursts/straight-line wind damage which are a product of precipitation factors and air-moisture.
So, will we have a severe weather season? It's likely. But will we see the tornadoes like we've been seeing for the past several years? Probably not as long as the necessary wind driving dynamics remain to our north. Even the Midwest and plains states have been lacking in their severe weather outbreaks this year, save for mid-April.
In any case, keep awareness a priority on any day that thunderstorms are in the forecast. You never know what might happen when one develops!
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