Summer Heat & More Severe Thunder?
By Gil Simmons on July 3, 2012, 8:03am
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High pressure and quiet weather all day today. Humidity levels are low and comfortable as I expect dewpoint numbers to remain in the 50s today. A big surge in low level moisture levels will occur overnight tonight. A complex of thundershowers over the Northern Great Lakes today will head our way tonight and feed off of this moisture advection. Some thunder possible overnight here locally as this atmospheric change takes place. Dewpoints will be in the 60s to lower 70s by tomorrow morning and through the day. This will be round number one of unsettled weather tonight and prior to 8AM tomorrow morning.
Round number two will be dependent on how much sun breaks through tomorrow. I think we will see some strong sunshine from 9AM-ish through 3PM-ish. This should build some pretty good CAPE values. I am a bit concerned about the low vertical velocities at 700mb, however, there is cold air advection at 500mb. Surface CAPE and CAA aloft could be enough to fire some storms. There is also some 50KT winds aloft, so wind damage is a possibility for any storm that really gets going. Rough timing estimate looks to be 3PM-7PM...stay tuned on adjustments.
Back to nice Mid-Summer weather Thursday through Saturday with a pretty strong warming-up each afternoon. Dewpoints should be in the 60s through the period for a Summer feel!
A cold front is progged to reach Connecticut later Saturday & Saturday Night. There could be a pretty good round of convection with that. Stay tuned.
I hope you all have a wonderful and safe 4th. I will see you on the Green at Avery Point in Groton Thursday morning with live weather!
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