Storm Intercepting Today (Brief Statement)
By Stephen Barabas on July 26, 2012, 1:50pm
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The warm front is on the move. That noticeable boundary between a majority of clouds and then clearer skies behind it is the warm front. Right now we're getting into the lower 80s in Southwestern CT. As this warm front pushes in it will rise further into the mid to upper 80s. Along this boundary will reside the best chance for supercells and possibly some isolated tornadoes due to enhanced shear and temperature contrasts. If any supercell is able to ride this boundary, it could potentially become tornadic.
I intend to be out, scoping out a position to enhance my chances of intercepting storms later on in the day. The biggest concern will be a mixture of the possibly of a sea breeze moving in from coastal and eastern CT which would help to inhibit severe storms. The further west I go, the better I'll be.
My other concern will be the timing of these storms. The models have slowed back down with storm progression, placing their arrival anywhere between 6 p.m. with some discrete storms, to 11 p.m. with the line of storms capable of damaging winds. It's going to be an interesting challenge among other things in this part of the country.
Progged CAPE values are still within the 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg range for much of western Connecticut and westward into NY and PA and areas south. These values are indicative of a primed, unstable atmosphere which really only needs a push to break the thermal capping inversion.
Shear values are pretty high as well, at least relatively speaking for what we usually see in this area of the nation. So an elevated risk for supercells and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
All of Connecticut, but especially from Central CT-westward should be on alert for changing weather conditions. Though storms could potentially fizzle as they approach the area due to a sea breeze (this being one hypothetical forecast) if they are NOT mitigated in intensity, there could be some problems for the area. It'll be best to keep an eye to the sky and listen to local weather periodically to remain informed. Better to be safe than sorry.
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