SPC: Tornado Watch Likely
By Quincy Vagell on September 8, 2012, 11:10am
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The SPC has targeted our area for potential tornadoes today.
Some thunderstorms in and around the NYC area have already showed some signs of rotation. Given very strong winds and wind shear aloft, in addition to a relatively unstable air-mass and the stage is set for isolated tornadoes.
Forecast:
Thunderstorms will develop well ahead of a cold front between now and 6 p.m. Any of the storms can produce damaging winds, dangerous lightning, torrential rain and in some cases, hail and/or tornadoes.
Another round of heavy weather is expected later on as the cold front moves from west to east across the area this evening. From approximately 6 p.m. to midnight, another round of thunderstorms is forecast. Those storms also have a relatively high potential to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Stay tuned to WXedge.com for all of the latest updates.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081439Z - 081645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE OUT OF A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL INCREASE WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS.
DISCUSSION...A FEW CELLS WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORCED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR WAS ONLY AROUND 15-20 KT PER OKX/DIX VWP DATA...THIS SHOULD COMPARATIVELY STRENGTHEN AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES NWD THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH GRADUAL SURFACE HEATING AMIDST UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO BECOME SUSTAINED FOR LONGER DURATION AND LIKELY INTENSIFY...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/08/2012
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