September Soaker Tuesday
By Steve MacLaughlin on September 15, 2012, 8:42pm
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A cold front came through early on Saturday morning with very little rain, but that northwest wind kicked up all day and a fall-feel has overtaken Connecticut. That great, crisp weather will continue on Sunday. More sunshine for Monday but temperatures will be a bit warmer. And then we turn our attention to Tuesday.
All computer models are in pretty good agreement that we could have our first rainstorm of the season on Tuesday. There are still some differences on exact timing, but it's possible the rain could start as early as Monday evening and not shut off until some time on Wednesday.
Most of the event looks to be a light to moderate but persistent rain. That limits the flooding concerns and is also the type of rain that can really help a drought since it's slow and steady. The concerns for flooding and strong winds will arise when we see thunderstorms. When these storms arrive is when we could begin to see the water pile up more quickly.
The image above is our Microcast computer model showing conditions at 10pm on Tuesday. Although we could see rain at any point on Tuesday, it's about this time late Tuesday into Wednesday morning when the actual cold front will approach from the west. That tells me that Wednesday morning might be when we see the best chance for the stronger storms, the heavy rain and the gusty winds.
Rainfall totals across the state look to average about 2", but those spots that see the downpours could see closer to 3". In fact, this system is tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and is teaming up with a cold front from the west...and some parts of the Eastern US just back to our west could see over 4" of rain....so the potential for higher amounts in CT is certainly real.
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