Frost September 24, 2012?
By Ralph Fato on September 23, 2012, 11:27am
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The map above are the current temps as of 7am EST this morning. Impressive. Paducah, Kentucky normal low is 55°, they are at 39°.
Seeing how low temps got in Central U.S and Midwest, I wouldn't be surprised to see lows go below forecast in CT.
Upton's latest mentions frost. Western zones might have clouds from an approaching upper level shortwave which would prevent any frost but eastern zones might not. No precip is expected with this shortwave.
FIRST FROSTS ARE USUALLY IN OCTOBER/NOVEMBER. (Mid-October for northern zones, beginning of November for the coast and end of October in between)
UPTON NWS :(Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, New London Counties)
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW ZONES AND THE PINE BARRENS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THESE TEMPERATURES...FROST IS A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER ...NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT OUT AN ADVISORY JUST YET AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROTECT US...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW ZONES. THESE CLOUDS COULD PREVENT THOSE ZONES FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THOUGH EASTERN ZONES...SUCH AS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY WHICH WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY NOT SEE CLOUDS INCREASE IN TIME...SO IF ANY PART OF THE CWA WERE TO SEE FROST...THAT AREA WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IT. AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL REEVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.
BOSTON NWS: (Hartford, Tolland, Windham Counties)
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE W...SO EXPECTING DRY WX
TO PREVAIL. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE MIN TEMPS. LOW AND MID LVL
TEMPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH CAA...HOWEVER EXPECT INCREASING
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W.
THEREFORE...MINS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER THERE MAY BE. SFC FLOW SHOULD DROP OFF...BUT MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO FULLY RADIATE IF THERE ARE SOME REMNANT CLOUDS. ATTM...GIVEN
PROJECTED SFC INVERSIONS...HAVE TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S W AND LOW 40S TOWARD THE SE. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE SOME COOLER
VALLEYS MAY GET CLOSE. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR FROST
WITH THIS UPDATE...AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE IN AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST ADVISORIES...PARTICULARLY
FOR NW ZONES.
Here's how the 850mb temps look. What an impressive trough! That will shift East (but not as far south as current) And yes, thats sleet and snow on radar.
Some locations in MN had measurable snow Friday night which is the earliest snow in 17 years. (Source: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Duluth.gov?ref=stream)
Looks like I might be starting my wood stove a little bit Monday Morning. If anyone knows the record earliest frost for some locations in CT please post below or in a new article. Thanks!
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