Big Warm-up Might Not Happen
By Quincy Vagell on October 16, 2012, 3:50pm Last modified: October 17, 2012, 11:41am
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The ECMWF was showing a big warm-up next week, but the forecast has changed...
After looking at the last few runs of the ECMWF, I was very intrigued by the potential of a significant warm-up next week. In fact, some indications were pointing towards temperatures in the 70's and close to 80 degrees...
New model runs:
The 12z ECMWF has backed off significantly, keeping a ridge suppressed further to the south, allowing for shortwaves to bring cooler shots of air into the Northeast. Also, the longer range of the ECMWF continues to show a split pattern with no significant warm-up, but a lack of really cold air as well.
GFS was more consistent:
The GFS has been much more conservative with any major warming, keep any blasts of warm air relatively short-lived. Now, the two models are in better agreement with the forecast for into next week.
What to expect:
It does look like there will be moderating temperatures for Friday of this week. Even early next week could see a warming trend, but temperatures are only expected to be slightly above average with readings in the 60's. (previous forecasts hinted at the potential for a MAJOR warm-up)
Beyond that, up and down temperatures are expected to continue.
Day 8-10 ECMWF vs. GFS:
The models show a weak ridge building by the end of next week, but the feature that grabs my eye is a digging through in the Pacific Northwest. Combine this with a significant surface high across Canada and there could actually be a major cool-down for portions of the Northern US towards the end of October.
Further thoughts:
The past two runs of the ECMWF were showing 850mb temps in the +14 to +16C range, meaning high temperatures could have reached 75 to 80 degrees. The new 12z run keeps 850mb temps basically at or below 10C throughout the period, meaning highs would have a tough time getting above 70 degrees.
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