East Coast: Cold Air and a Hurricane?
By Quincy Vagell on October 19, 2012, 4:40pm Last modified: October 21, 2012, 10:25am
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The new run of the ECMWF model shows an interesting forecast...
The 12z run at day 10 (240 hours), shows a tropical system moving north across the Atlantic, just off the East Coast, while cold air filters down from Canada.
Discussion:
The longer range models have been hinting at tropical develop for a while, somewhere off of the Florida, for a while now. There have also been indications that a cold blast will dig south into the north-central and perhaps northeastern United States towards the very end of October.
Thoughts:
There's a lot of speculation, especially with a 10 day forecast. It is not necessarily likely that such a scenario will unfold, but it's possible. This time of year is very interesting when it comes to the tropics. The Gulf Stream is still rather warm, so tropical systems can hold onto their strength as they move northward. At the same time, the Polar jet stream is shifting southward, allow for colder air to filter into the northern United States.
The Perfect Storm:
Back in 1991, a low pressure system literally "ate" a hurricane along the East Coast, forming a massive coastal storm. The storm plagued the Northeast United States for several days before it reformed into a hurricane and moved out to sea.
More articles about the Perfect Storm of 1991:
Perfect Storm of October 1991
Be Hurricane Prepared in the Fall
This Week in WX-October 31st 1991: Perfect Storm
Another view of the ECMWF forecast for Monday, October 29th:
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