Sandy Sandy-Where Will She Go? My Latest Thoughts

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By Gil Simmons on October 24, 2012, 6:16am Last modified: October 24, 2012, 2:16pm

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Here we go. The plot thickens for the future Sandy forecast track and associated impact. I was hoping to see a trend to the east on the ECMWF (European) weather model. Not the case. As a matter of fact, it brings a deep Sandy center in across New Jersey.

The GFS is interesting with a slightly west trend then a hook to the west under the upper level trough. It seems a bit late for major impact here. There is an interesting trough feature that does develop over Southern New England as the main center curves back around for Eastern Canada. This could be a result of the model struggling with-

a. Splitting the energy between the upper level jet and off to the east.

b. Downstream Omega block of high pressure acting like an atmospheric road-block.

Here is a graphic I want to share with you showing the two model solutions.  

I will feel much more confident tomorrow and Friday. I really feel the models need to sample more of the storm after it crosses Cuba. There are so many variables in play up to that point. Upper level energy and jet dynamics will be better sampled by all models too! 

Here is an interesting note in the National Hurricane Center's discussion from this morning:

THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.

I will try to update more through the day here! Please check my video for the latest discussion and some insight on these computer models. Have a good day and you can follow me on twitter here and facebook here! -Gil

9:00AM Just had this image tweeted to me from Matthew on twitter @flybetweenwalls and I wanted to share it with you! It is the GFS ensembles showing the number of solutions curving to the west. This is much more omnious than recent runs. This image courtesy of University Of Wisconsin-Milwaukee...here you go: 

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Gil Simmons

Town: New Haven, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

Articles: 462

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