Sandy - Super-sized
By Mike Moran on October 26, 2012, 10:58am Last modified: October 26, 2012, 10:59am
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The upcoming storm may be bigger than you think.
This morning’s 06Z run of the GFS forecasts landfall in northern New Jersey. Whew! It looks like a “miss.”
Not so fast.
The map above is very telling. It is the sea level pressure and 900 mb wind field for hybrid Sandy, as forecast on 06Z GFS, valid Tuesday morning. I snagged it off Dr. Ryan Maue’s incredible site – you can find it on the Weatherbell Premium site. 900 mb is something like 1,200 feet above sea level, given S.L. of 965 mb (which it is forecast to be for Connecticut... if this run of the GFS is accurate). So, this map is a reasonable depiction of the sort of gusts to be expected, especially on the hilltops. First off, take note of how large the area of light winds is at the storm’s center. But what is noteworthy is where the 90 knot-plus winds (the brownish swath) are relative to the center of the low pressure.
If you look at the map, you’ll see sustained winds of 90 knots (104 mph) or more in a swath that extends from about Portsmouth,NH to Newport,Rhode Island and offshore to the southeast, while the center of the storm is about 100 miles south of the Rhode Island coast and driving due west. For reference, the advisory on Sandy as she approached landfall in Cuba as a strong Cat 2 has hurricane force winds extending only 30 nm from her center. So, a "miss" to the south like this is no miss at all for us. Scary.
By the way, when this model shows landfall in New Jersey, the strongest winds are not in NJ, but in a patch at 90+ knots over the metro D.C. area!
The point is – don’t let the forecast point of landfall mislead as regards the fury that may be coming. This will be a big storm, even if she “misses” us. Prepare accordingly. Sandy is going to be super-sized!
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