Sending Sandy West? Here's My Discussion For Ct!
By Gil Simmons on October 26, 2012, 6:15am Last modified: October 26, 2012, 5:50pm
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Please check my video discussion for the latest!
Some interesting developments overnight and this morning.
1. Hurricane Center shifts track west to around Cape May Nj. This would still cause enough wind for power issues and tidal flooding. Not as severe as points to the south of NYC. Here's a look:
2. The ECMWF has shifted a little more to the west with a location around the Chesapeake Bay. This would be the easiest going scenario and still capable of serious flooding along Ct's shoreline. Over land winds would be 20-45 mph.
3. The other development is how the GFS continues a charge to Long Island and the shoreline of Connecticut. This would be the worst case scenario locally with hurricane wind gusts over the state. Not to mention tremendous coastal flooding and damage.
I think with the influence of the Gulf Stream and winds aloft, this will end up in a Atlantic City to NYC area for a track. remember the wind field will be over 1,000 miles wide.
It is also important to note that the hurricane is encountering some high winds aloft out in front . Here is a look at a water vapor image from this morning:
It will be interesting to monitor pressure readings through today and see how this wind shear impacts Sandy.
Still plenty of variables here for influence. The midday GFS model run will be interesting along with the NAM to some extent.
Please check back through the day.
-Gil
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