NWS Storm Surge Exceedence Probabilities
By Stephen Gode on October 27, 2012, 2:58pm Last modified: October 27, 2012, 2:58pm
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This slideshow looks at National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 from the NWS.
The photo above is the 10% probability of storm surge exceedance. This is currently the worst case scenario. This is part of the reason to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It estimates a one in ten chance for storm surge at least 5-7 feet in western Connecticut and at least 3-5 feet in eastern Connecticut. Parts of NYC have a 10% chance for at least 7-9 foot storm surge. This would be very significant and worse than Irene in respects to coastal flooding. Please note this is only a 10% chance of happening and statistically very unlikely of happening, currently. This is also an early rough estimate. It all depends on Sandy's track and intensity. NHC information on Sandy.