Powerful Storm Approaching

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By Quincy Vagell on June 12, 2013, 4:40pm Last modified: June 14, 2013, 10:50am

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A strong storm system is forecast to move towards the Northeast on Thursday, bringing heavy rain and winds to some areas and severe thunderstorms elsewhere.

Connecticut's Forecast:
Thursday morning: Periods of rain, especially across western Connecticut.
Thursday afternoon: Heavy rain with localized flooding. PM commute will be very difficult.
Thursday night: Rain, heavy at times and becoming windy, especially near the coast.
Friday morning: Lingering showers and breezy. Conditions slowly drying out.
Friday afternoon: Breaks of sunshine, a shower or two possible.
Total rainfall: 1 to 2 inches with 3"+ amounts possible in heavier bands of rain. 

Low pressure is forecast to move into western Pennsylvania and overspread rain into New York and southern New England Thursday morning. The setup is similar to a winter storm as low pressure is expected to transfer towards the southern New Jersey or Delmarva coast Thursday evening. Ahead of the storm, a very warm and unstable atmosphere could result in widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across the mid-Atlantic region, mainly south of Philadelphia. To the north, heavy rain with localized flooding is likely. Several heavy rain events over the past few weeks have left the area prone to flooding as the ground, lakes, streams, etc. cannot handle much more rain in a short period of time.
As a strong June low pressure system (around 995mb) passes south of Long Island, increasing winds are also likely.
The strongest winds should be across the coastline where gusts may reach 50 MPH. While inland areas could still see gusty winds, I'd expect winds to generally remain under 40 MPH there. With that said, spotty power outages are possible as the ground is very saturated and some trees may come down on power lines.
The computer models may be shifting a bit to the south and are not nearly as strong as they were 12-24 hours ago with the storm. However, of the exact storm track, periods of heavy rain are still likely in Connecticut. The only change here is that instead of widespread 3-4" amounts like some forecasts were calling for, I am expecting 1-2" with some isolated 3"+ totals. 

When will the storm end?
The heaviest rain is over before daybreak Friday, but breezy conditions continue through much of the day. A few lingering showers are also possible, but some breaks of sunshine are also expected. 

Stay tuned to WXedge.com for the latest technical weather discussions.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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