Slight Risk of Storms for Northern CT
By Quincy Vagell on August 4, 2012, 3:20pm
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Isolated storms are possible today, mainly across northern Connecticut.
Strong thunderstorms with flooding rains are being tracked across western Massachusetts. Although no storms have popped up in Connecticut yet, a few isolated ones are possible.
The atmosphere is marginally unstable and CAPE values are on the high side. Of course, hot surface temperatures are helping out. However, there isn't much of a trigger mechanism to help kick off storms. Some have been aided by the Berkshires to our north and the Litchfield Hills may see the best shot at a pop-up storm.
Looking deeper into the severe weather parameters:
(SB)CAPE is relatively high, with values of 2,500 to 3,000 J/kg across CT.
However, K-Index values are relatively low, except across the northern half of the state. The K-Index gives a good idea of how much of a potential there is in the atmosphere for thunderstorms. (not necessarily severe ones)
Wind shear is also relatively low, so damaging winds are not much of a concern.
Lapse rates are also on the steeper side, but mainly across northern CT.
Any storms that do fire can caused localized flooding, as precipitable water values are moderately high and storm movement will generally be slow.
A stray storm cannot be ruled out anywhere in the state, but the threat is on the order of 25% or less in the red zone above and 10% or less across areas not shaded in red.
Stay tuned to WXedge.com for updates and refer to live radar below:
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