Isaac Looks to Target Florida
By Quincy Vagell on August 22, 2012, 2:55pm
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After a few wobbles in the tropical forecast, the models now point towards Florida, almost unanimously, when it comes to Tropical Storm Isaac.
A few of the forecasts, which were outliers, showed a curve towards the north, potentially bringing Isaac towards the Carolinas. On the other end of the spectrum, the ECMWF has been consistent with a track further west, into the Gulf of Mexico.
With that said, I have to hand it to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for being fairly consistent with their forecast. Remember that a 5-day forecast, on average, has an error of just under 250 miles. That's a pretty large spread and could be the difference between missing Florida to the west, or passing by Florida to the east.
What's to expect?
There are a lot of variables to consider, but the biggest factor is high pressure out in the Atlantic. With a pretty big ridge in place, there is no reason for Isaac to deviate far from a W or WNW track.
Similar to Irene?
Irene was located in nearly the exact same spot almost a year ago, but remember that Irene was tracking NW and Isaac is tracking WNW.
A newer article, discussing the potential for Isaac to impact New England.
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