Hurricane Trending Closer: 12z ECMWF
By Quincy Vagell on September 3, 2012, 4:00pm
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After a few models were hinting at a further west track for Hurricane (likely to-be) Leslie, now the 12z ECMWF continues a westward trend.
Tropical Storm Leslie remains well south of Bermuda and is several days away from reaching any land mass. With that said, there are some indications that the storm may continue north-northwest and could pass close to the East Coast, IF everything goes just right.
Ridging across the open Atlantic is likely to keep Leslie moving in a general north to northwest direction for the next several days. This would bring the system near or a little to the west of Bermuda. From there, the forecast becomes a bit more complicated. The new 12z ECMWF is more robust with a cutoff low across the eastern United States. Combine this with surface high pressure north of New England, with 500mb ridging east of New England and Leslie continues moving towards the north.
Key things to consider:
A landfalling hurricane is still fairly unlikely across the United States, but indications are that this storm could come close to portions of Cape Cod and the Islands. Additionally, there is an even greater chance that the storm could come very close to Nova Scotia. Since the storm is forecast to become large and very strong, it still bears watching. At the very least, rip currents and higher seas can be expected towards next weekend.
FINALLY, the ECMWF has been the best model with tropical systems over the past few years, so this trend is becoming increasingly important.
Read on for a few additional images and thoughts.