Models Predict Perfect Storm Part II
By Quincy Vagell on October 21, 2012, 8:15pm Last modified: October 23, 2012, 5:59pm
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Most of the computer models are predicting a historic East Coast storm.
After playing with the idea for a few days now, the models continue to bring a major storm, possibly a hurricane, up the east coast in about a week. The reason why it would be historic is that whether the storm is a hurricane or some sort of hybrid system, the last time something like this happened was during the Perfect Storm of 1991.
The idea was first thrown out there on Friday when the ECMWF was showing a tropical system moving north along the East Coast 10 days out. The models have, for the most part, stuck with the idea and now the GFS and others are on board.
Above, the ECMWF literally shows a Category 1 hurricane (possibly stronger before landfall), moving into the mid-Atlantic states. Upon closer examination, note that 850mb winds are about 92 knots along coastal southwestern Connecticut. Mix these winds down to the surface, and we're talking about 80 to 85 mph winds near the surface, indicating Category 1 hurricane-force strength.
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) model has a similar outcome, which means a lot since the system in question is seven to eight days out.
The 12z run from this morning also showed a 970mb low (most likely a Category 1 hurricane), not far from the mid-Atlantic coast. Although the storm is a bit of a slower mover, the GFS shows historical rainfall amounts of over 15 inches across portions of Long Island and Connecticut.
What's the forecast:
This article is not meant to cause alarm or hype, but is meant to discuss what the computer models are currently showing. A LOT can change in a week's time, but the overall pattern and the model consistency is at least intriguing at this point.
The possibility of a significant storm, possibly a tropical system, impacting the East Coast in about a week is increasing, but it is absolutely NOT set in stone.
Continue the slideshow for more graphics and forecasts on this potential storm.
Courtesy to Weatherbell models for some of the images used in this article.