NEW: European Model Shifts North
By Quincy Vagell on October 26, 2012, 3:45pm Last modified: October 27, 2012, 8:34am
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After being the SW outlier for days, the new European model has shifted north.
The models were split between two different tracks earlier Friday, but now it appears as if the trend may be towards a closer track to Connecticut. A lot can change, but the fact that the Euro shifted northward is significant.
Here's the scoop:
The Euro had everyone on edge as it was consistently showing a track on the extreme southwest edge of the model guidance. However, the new data that came in Friday afternoon had a significant surprise.
The new landfall is approximately 150 miles further north, across southern NJ.
What does it mean?
Well, instead of being torn between two tracks, we MAY be seeing a trend, where the models converge and agree on one forecast track.
The average of all the model runs puts a track somewhere into New Jersey.
This is not a good trend for Connecticut, especially the shoreline, as a track into New Jersey would cause a prolonged easterly wind. That means that more water could be forced into Long Island Sound, causing beach erosion, coastal flooding and an increased storm surge.
It also means that the National Hurricane Center may shift their track more to the north with their 5 p.m. update.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
The storm is still three days away and it is LIKELY that there will be more wobbling of the forecast tracks. Although New Jersey APPEARS like the likely target, details will be sorted out as more data comes in Friday night into Saturday morning.
Stay tuned to WXedge.com for all the latest details.
Image courtesy of weatherbell.com
Here's another look at the new Euro from PSU's E-Wall page:
Below, the track that Gil predicted MIGHT happen looks like the new Euro:
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