Changing Over to Ice/Rain

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By Quincy Vagell on February 13, 2014, 1:40pm Last modified: February 13, 2014, 6:07pm

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Snow continues to changeover to mixed precipitation and rain across Connecticut.

Forecast: Any leftover snow is transitioning over to sleet and freezing rain. A change to plain light rain is likely as far northwest as I-84 Precipitation is becoming lighter and there will be a break in the action by mid to late afternoon. By then, only some spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle can be expected before more precipitation redevelops later tonight.

Now: The heaviest snow is lifting north, and at the same time warmer air is working into Connecticut. Much of the state was reporting sleet at 1:30 p.m. with some freezing rain near the I-95 corridor. Plain rain was reported right near the shoreline as temperatures had risen up to around 34°F. Precipitation is also becoming lighter, which is part of the reason why temperatures are slowly rising.

Here is more information from the Storm Prediction Center:
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCHES/HOUR -- LOCALLY HIGHER -- WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST A SOLID SHIELD OF HEAVY SNOW ARCING ENE FROM NERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG DEEP ASCENT AIDED BY INTENSE WARM ADVECTION SUPPLIED BY A STRONG LLJ -- E.G. 65-KT ELY/S AT 1.5-KM AGL SAMPLED BY OKX VWP. SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-8 MB PER 2 HOURS HAVE BEEN NOTED OFF THE LONG ISLAND AND CT COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. THE NEWD TRANSLATION OF RELATED DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS BENEATH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OFFERED BY A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT THE NEWD TRANSLATION OF HEAVY SNOW. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE HEAVIEST SNOW -- WITH RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR AND LOCALLY HIGHER -- WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN MA...SERN VT...SRN NH...AND COASTAL SRN MAINE WHERE THE ELEVATED INFLUX OF OCEAN-MODIFIED TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER PW ALONG WITH MEAGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES.

ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND THE INFLUX OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A DECREASE IN SNOW RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW -- I.E. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NY AND NRN NJ. A SIMILAR DECREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL ASCENT LINGERING IN THESE AREAS FOR MORE SHALLOW PRECIPITATION GENERATION...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW GRAINS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.01-0.03 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO LIQUID RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 32F...SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AROUND PARTS OF THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE NC/VA PIEDMONT AFFECTS THE AREA.

..COHEN.. 02/13/2014
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0101.html 

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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